Here are the states returning fastest to pre-pandemic normal: analysis – The Hill

The story at a glance


  • A Moody’s Analytics index has tracked the country’s economic recovery since the start of the pandemic based on 13 measures, including the value of goods and services produced, employment, retail sales and new home announcements.

  • Moody’s latest figures through the end of June show that seven of the top ten states voted Republican.

  • Data shows the ten states closest to pre-pandemic normal include Connecticut, Rhode Island, Nebraska, South Dakota, West Virginia, Montana, Iowa, Idaho, Oklahoma and Nevada.

Republican states have been leading the way in economic recovery since the start of the pandemic, according to recent analysis. But a host of factors, including remote work options and early statewide pandemic environments, played a major role in how quickly a state could return to pre-pandemic normalcy.

A Moody’s Analytics index has tracked the country’s economic recovery since the start of the pandemic based on 13 measures, including the value of goods and services produced, employment, retail sales and new home announcements.

Moody’s latest figures through the end of June show seven of the top ten states voting Republican, while separate data shows US residents moving in droves. Their top picks, according to the data, are led by Republicans.

Data shows the ten states closest to pre-pandemic normal include Connecticut, Rhode Island, Nebraska, South Dakota, West Virginia, Montana, Iowa, Idaho, Oklahoma and Nevada.

A separate Moody’s analysis of 46 million people who moved to different US ZIP codes in a 12-month period ending February 2022 shows Florida, Texas and North Carolina leading the way. a group of Republican states welcoming the most new residents, according to the Wall Street Journal.

This migration can be partly attributed to the flexibility made possible by remote work options, allowing people to move to less expensive locations, Moody’s analyst Matt Colyar told Changing American in an interview.

“What we’ve seen is a noticeable effect of the migration trends that everyone is talking about, whether it’s housing, house prices, or what have you,” Colyar said.

“And that’s going into more affordable areas, whether it’s a lot of the southwest, southeast of the mountain west, those states have had an influx of people and that’s at the expense of the northeast locations in the Midwest, and with fewer workers.”

Republican states are also gaining the most jobs, according to a separate Brookings Institution analysis of federal data seen by the WSJ. The analysis shows that states that voted for Republican candidates in the last two presidential elections gained the most jobs with 341,000. Blue states, meanwhile, were short by 1.3 million in May.

In addition, May data from Bureau of Labor Statistics shows that 12 states with Republican-led legislatures had record unemployment rates.

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“The normal that we are measuring is probably unreachable at this point. And there are just behavioral changes that are sticky,” Colyar said.

“We’re probably looking for something that won’t happen, and our index is measuring something, behaviors that will probably change permanently,” he concluded.

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Posted Jul 06, 2022

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